Why has “ISIS” so far Failed in India?
The so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)/Daesh is a relatively new terror organisation, but one with large and gruesome ambitions. Their activity in the Middle East, European capitals and American suburbs gain most of the headlines, but areas of Asia and Africa are hardly immune. On paper, India looks vulnerable. It is part of the imagined Khorasan territory of the ancient caliphate that ISIS seeks to recreate. It has the third largest Muslim population in the world, the majority of them Sunni. Some fear this population is a fertile recruitment ground for radicalization. Though ISIS vows to wipe out the Shia Muslim and Hindu populations in the country, to date no attack has taken place within India. The …
New Challenges – Is the Taliban in Transition?
On 21st May, an American airstrike killed Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour in the Pakistani province of Baluchistan. This operation, which involved multiple drones, comes as a relief to many, as Mansour had been actively planning and carrying out attacks across Afghanistan. According to the US Secretary of State John Kerry, Mansour ‘posed a continuing imminent threat to US personnel in Afghanistan, Afghan civilians, Afghan security forces, and members of the US and the NATO coalition.’ The killing of the Taliban leader, however, is likely to lead to unwelcome consequences, and will hamper peace talks between the insurgents and the government. The issue of peace talks has always been unpopular among the Taliban’s most senior leadership. In the wake of Mansour’s …
Overconfidence and the War in Syria
The attacks in Paris have elevated both the desire and the case for a full-scale war against Islamic State in Syria. French President Francois Hollande has vowed not just to fight IS, but to destroy it. The US and Russia are poised to significantly up their stakes, and Prime Minister David Cameron has begun laying out the argument to extend British airstrikes into Syria as well. The war is already underway and likely to escalate into an even greater coalition of military power than already exists. However, wars are unpredictable. This is especially so in the case of Syria, with multiple non-state armed groups interacting with each other, multiple foreign state actors, and no legitimate government. Even the vast asymmetry …