Posts Tagged

methodology

Miniature figure of a female politician on the USA flag

OxPol Blogcast showcases research, analysis, insights, and experiences from the members of the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR), and specialist guests from the Oxford academic community and beyond. Are masculine behaviour and appearance among the prerequisites for electoral success, in line with popular belief? On this episode, OxPol Blogcast host Anastasia Bektimirova is joined by Dr. Rachel Bernhard, an Associate Professor at the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR), to put the view of the political arena as a place favouring conventionally masculine traits to a test. Focusing on the United States, Rachel explains what is understood as masculinity and femininity in political leadership, and guides us through the observed variation in voters’ response to those cues. We also discuss …
A sketch of a woman delivering a speech before audience

OxPol Blogcast showcases research, analysis, insights, and experiences from the members of the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR), and specialist guests from the Oxford academic community and beyond. On this episode of the OxPol Blogcast, host Anastasia Bektimirova is joined by Marta Antonetti, a DPhil Politics researcher at the University of Oxford’s Department of Politics and International Relations (DPIR). Marta guides us through her research on the effect of having diverse role models in politics on widening political participation among the underrepresented groups. We also discuss what it means to take an intersectional approach in social science research, and why it is important. Find out more about Marta’s research at https://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/person/marta-antonetti This episode is part of the series Women in Politics: Perspectives from …

The majority of forecasts point to Hilary Clinton winning tomorrow’s US presidential election. Several of the poll, market and expert forecasts with probabilities for who will win are helpfully summarised by the New York Times here.  The polls-based predictions are all, apart from one, pretty confident that Clinton will win. At the time of writing, Drew Linzer’s model at Daily Kos puts the probability of a Clinton win at 87%, HuffPost has 98% and Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium estimate is as high as 99%. The New York Times’ own model is slightly less confident, on 84%. The exception is Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model which puts Clinton’s chances at just 67%. The lower probability for Clinton in the FiveThirtyEight model …